Glyphosate Market Analysis

By Yang Bin, China National Chemical Information Center

1. Analysis and projection of the glyphosate industry

1.1 The industry worldwide

In the world today Monsanto of the United States and certain enterprises in China make glyphosate.  
In 2014, China’s output of glyphosate was around 450 kt. With Monsanto’s output of 270 kt , the world’s output of glyphosate technical was 720 kt. World consumption of glyphosate formulations has been around 850 kt a year in recent years, equivalent to around 450-500 kt of glyphosate technical. The capacity of glyphosate in the world was 1.08 million t/a in 2014 – obvious oversupply. The problem of oversupply and structural surplus will become all the more prominent, so the fierceness of competition will be further aggravated in the future. See Figure 1 for details.
As stated earlier, world consumption of glyphosate in 2014 was 720 kt, with China supplying 450 kt. Monsanto owns a production capacity of 375 kt/a around the world. Monsanto’s market share is estimated to be over 45%, as some Chinese products are OEM.  
After a price rebound in the first quarter of 2014 in China, the glyphosate market of the United States, caused the total demand for Chinese products to plummet. Oversupply and capacity surplus in China became apparent rather suddenly. Export was unsmooth, inventories built up and the prices started a downturn. The price of glyphosate dropped to the lowest, RMB28 000/t, at the end of June.
The overall situation of glyphosate foreign trade in China was unsatisfactory in 2014. Export was slack in the usual brisk season of September and October. While there were some other factors – such as the digestion of inventory by foreign traders, the weakening of buying capacity due to the recession of the European economy and the reduction of glyphosate consumption in South America due to dry weather – the decisive factor in the slack glyphosate foreign trade was increased output by Monsanto.

1.2 Glyphosate industry in China

The diagram 2 shows that more than 80% of China’s output is exported. Any movements in the international market will produce huge impacts on glyphosate producers in China.
Countries to which China exported over 10 kt of glyphosate annually in recent years include Argentina, the United States, Brazil, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia and Thailand. Nevertheless, these same countries also consume over 10 kt of glyphosate from Monsanto each year. As most glyphosate producers in China are not yet registered in these seven countries, they cannot make overseas sales by themselves but have to wait for foreign traders to sign purchase contracts with them.

Table 1

Major application    Specific target    Application amount (100%)
Weeding in glyphosate-resistant GM crops    soybean, cotton, corn, rape, etc.    0.25-0.85 kg/hm2 for wheat and corn, 0.85-4.0kg /hm2 for cotton
Weeding in non-cultivated lands    orchards, rubber plantations, mulberry fields, tea gardens, forests, etc.    0.85-4.2 kg/hm2 for rubber plantations and orchards
Planting of crops with minimum tillage or no tillage    rice fields, etc.    0.20-2.24 kg/hm2 for weeds in emergence


Table 2   Export destinations of glyphosate technical in China, 2014

Export destination    Export value (US$)    Export amount (kg)
Total    1 368 066 110    267 658 447
Argentina    318 166 521    63 509 018
Brazil    287 794 500    55 751 919
USA    255 913 286    48 544 582
Australia    85 443 241    18 008 618
Indonesia    76 142 998    15 148 391
Malaysia    57 025 539    11 864 891
Denmark    25 267 200    4 695 273
Chile    20 049 015    3 585 600
Taiwan    18 047 437    3 585 164
Ireland    17 867 291    3 550 909
Canada    17 649 635    3 298 909
Russia    17 620 752    3 257 459
Uruguay    12 685 215    2 621 127
India    9 703 657    2 085 614
New Zealand    10 408 156    2 080 364
Columbia    11 279 071    2 059 636
Venezuela    13 975 028    2 009 455
Poland    11 042 492    1 973 455
Vietnam    9 857 548    1 973 018
Paraguay    9 788 415    1 941 818


1.3 Exports of glyphosate from China

The diagram 3 shows that the glyphosate market in China declined in 2014.

1.4 Price reduction of glyphosate in China in 2014

There was a price rise during March-April, but the price came all way down afterwards and dropped to the low of around RMB28 000/t at the end of June. The mainstream price even touched RMB25 000-26 000/t after October. The tax-inclusive production cost of large glyphosate producers was around RMB25 000-27 000/t. The main reasons for deals concluded below the cost line included the slack demand in foreign trade, the increase of inventories and the urgency of capital recovery. After April, the monthly output of glyphosate was basically maintained at 36 kt, much lower than the monthly output of 45 kt in same period of the previous year. The average operating rate of glyphosate units was around 42% in October and fell further to around 40% afterward.
Given this array of great difficulties, nearly half of China’s producers suspended production in 2014.  
In 2013, medium and small producers added a combined 150 kt/a capacity. A new 50 kt/a unit of Sichuan Hebang Corporation Limited started production in 2014. In the coming three years Sichuan Fuhua Industrial Group Co., Ltd. will add capacity of 120 kt/a and a combined capacity of 400-500 kt/a of Hubei Xingfa Chemical Group Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Group Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co., Ltd., Anhui Huaxin Chemical Co., Ltd. and some other enterprises in Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia will be put on stream. Monsanto plans to invest US$75 million to expand its Iowa-based glyphosate plant.


Table 3  Export destinations of glyphosate formulations in China, 2014

Export destinations    Export amounte (US$)    Export amount (kg)
Total    1 250 027 254     484 487 306
Thailand    120 138 445     59 693 356
Nigeria    132 442 875     55 150 897
Australia    90 582 734     32 897 333
Ghana    79 126 309     30 608 897
Vietnam    58 253 195     30 240 451
Brazil    72 358 053     18 422 647
Cote d’lvoire    44 254 007     14 351 411
Uruguay    44 433 689     12 997 299
Russia    33 446 615     12 701 118
Japan    32 976 193     12 305 807
Indonesia    30 765 616     11 749 270
Philippines    27 088 34     11 709 248
Argentina    48 603 301     9 868 945
USA    26 549 145     9 449 000
Ukraine    20 281 400     8 855 790
Columbia    17 015 114     7 718 511
Chile    20 439 486     7 666 204
Turkey    16 814 975     6 446 621
South Africa    17 427 848     5 927 650
Peru    12 286 446     5 583 560
Mexico    12 337 788     5 182 010
Kenya    11 373 878     4 999 342
Bulgaria    9 732 426     4 868 119
Malaysia    11 150 857     4 767 162
Guatemala    10 198 685     4 265 875
Cameroon    12 288 928     4 088 454
Canada    10 191 814     4 052 941
Guinea    9 633 653     3 970 269
Korea    9 543 93     3 355 479
Ecuador    7 265 387     3 231 020
Taiwan    8 995 148     3 082 400
Nicaragua    7 170 705     3 072 495
China    5 485 062     2 887 756
Dominica    6 452 573     2 696 122
Poland    6 166 589     2 472 858
Singapore    5 426 685     2 451 953
Honduras    5 831 732     2 392 571
Burma    5 136 033     2 382 357
Belarus     7 116 000     2 320 000
Egypt    5 318 532     2 194 120
France    5 795 783     2 125 898
Iran    7 295 765     2 121 643
Tanzania    4 850 199     2 100 168
Pakistan    5 206 258     2 046 016
Kazakhstan    5 396 488     1 94 843
Mali    3 915 252     1 908 696
Israel    5 210 896     1 896 932
New Zealand    5 004 892     1 896 554
Spain    5 635 971     1 887 975
Uganda    4 706 061     1 848 626
Others    84 910 441     31 631 637


2. Where are the markets for glyphosate?

The table 1 shows that most glyphosate is used in GM crops. Major GM markets are therefore major markets for glyphosate. We can research the distribution of GM markets to determine the distribution of major markets for glyphosate.

3. Export destinations for China-made glyphosate technical

3.1 Import markets for glyphosate technical around the world

In the diagram 4, the blue curve represents import value, the red curve represents import amount and the blue curve zone stands for import markets for glyphosate technical in the world. It can therefore be seen that major import markets for glyphosate technical in the world include Brazil, Argentina, the United States, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Denmark and Chile.

3.2 Export destinations for glyphosate technical in China in 2014

Major export destinations for glyphosate technical in China included Argentina, Brazil, the United States, Australia and Indonesia.
Major countries to which China exported glyphosate were matched to import markets in the world.
The United States, Denmark and Ireland mainly used high-end products.
Details are shown in the table 2.

4. Export destinations for Chinese glyphosate formulations in 2014

4.1 Import markets for glyphosate formulations around the world

In the diagram 5, the blue curve represents import value, the red curve represents import amount and the blue curve zone represents import markets for glyphosate formulations in the world. It can therefore be seen that major import markets for glyphosate formulations in the world include Thailand, Nigeria, Australia, Ghana, Vietnam, Brazil, Cote d’lvoire, Uruguay and Russia.

4.2 Export destinations for glyphosate formulations in China in 2014

The diagram 6 shows that:
(1) Major export destinations for glyphosate formulations in China included Thailand, Nigeria, Australia, Ghana, Vietnam and Brazil.
(2) Major countries to which China exported glyphosate formulations were matched to import markets in the world.
(3) There were a total of 137 countries/regions to which China exported glyphosate formulations, basically covering the whole world.
(4) Details are shown in the table 3.

5. Conclusion

(1) The world’s capacity to make glyphosate was 1.08 million t/a in 2014, the output was 720 kt and the overall operating rate was 67%. There was a surplus overall. The output in China was 450 kt, accounting for 62.5% of the world total.
(2) Global consumption of glyphosate was around 720 kt, and the international market circulation amount was around 610 kt.  
(3) China outputs a major proportion of the world’s glyphosate, but the actual market share is much lower (as most Chinese products are OEM or are sold by traders). Enterprises in China should therefore strengthen export and directly occupy end-user markets so as to reduce profit leakage.