Demand Increases for EPR in China

By Team of China National Chemical Information Center


Overcapacity of EPR in the world

In the world, there are 18 ethylene-propylene rubber (EPR) units being in operation, and their total capacity was 1.31 million t/a by the end of 2011.The production of EPR is mainly concentrated in North America, Western Europe and Asia. LANXESS is the largest EPR producer in the world with a capacity of 320 thousand t/a, accounting for around 24.4% of the world total. Exxon Mobil comes next with a capacity of 265 thousand t/a, accounting for around 20.2%. Dow Chemical ranks the third place with a capacity of 150 thousand t/a, accounting for around 11%.
   In recent years, the demand for EPR grew less than 1% annually in the world. In 2008 and 2009, the consumption of EPR in the United States and Europe reduced drastically and drove the global consumption to be down. The global consumption of EPR in 2009 was the lowest in ten years. In 2010, driven by the consumption growth of EPR in China, the global consumption of EPR was partially restored. However, the European debt crisis broke out in 2011, the consumption ability of EPR downstream enterprises was weakened, and under its influence, the EPR market in the developed countries and regions like Europe and the United States was in oversupply. According to the rough statistics, the total consumption of EPR in the world was around 900 thousand tons, being close to the low level in 2009. China consumed around 240 thousand tons of EPR in 2011. The capacity of EPR in the world is in surplus.
   In the consumption structure, there is a slight difference in the different regions of the world.  The consumption of EPR in the world is mainly concentrated in the United States, Western Europe and Asia, and major consumption sectors include automotive manufacturing, electric wires and cables, architecture and additive, etc. Affected by the decline in the automobile industry, the consumption of EPR in the United States and Western Europe reduced by around 3.8% and 5.8% annually, respectively during 2005-2010. In the United States, around 50% of EPR is used in the automobile industry. Around 55% of EPR in Western Europe is directly or indirectly used in the automobile industry. The largest consumption sector of EPR in Asia is also the automobile industry with the fastest growth.

Table 1 Major EPR Producers in the World       thousand t/a

Producer    Country    Location    Capacity    Major products    Mmethod
LANXESS    Germany    Marl    60    EPM and EPDM    Solution
LANXESS    The United States    Orange, TX    60    EPM and EPDM    Suspension
LANXESS    The Netherlands    Geleen    160    EPDM    Solution
LANXESS    Brazil    Triunfo    40    EPDM    Solution
Exxon Mobil    The United States    Baton Rouge, LA    180    EPM and EPDM    Solution
Exxon Mobil    France    Notre Dame De Gravenchon    85    EPM and EPDM    Solution
Dow Chemical    The United States    Plaquemine, LA    150    EPDM    Solution
Lion Copolymer    The United States    Geismar, LA    95    EPM and EPDM    Solution
Polimeri Europa    Italy    Ferrara    85    EPM and EPDM    Suspension
Nizhnekamskneftekhim    Russia    Nizhnekamsk    30    EPM and EPDM    Solution
Mitsui Chemicals    Japan    Chiba    120    EPDM    Solution
Sumitomo    Japan    Chiba    43    EPDM    Solution
JSR Corp    Japan    Kajima    36    EPM and EPDM     Solution
Kumho    Korea    Yeochon    95    EPM and EPDM    Solution
SK    Korea    Yeochon    40    EPM and EPDM    Solution
Herdilla    India    Maharashtra    11    EPM    Solution
PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical    China    Jilin city, Jilin province    20    EPM and EPDM    Solution
Total            1 310        
Source: CNCIC


Production can not meet the demand in China

Currently PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co Ltd is China’s only EPR producer with a design capacity of 20 thousand t/a. The company originally planned to start up its first phase 25 thousand t/a unit of 50 thousand t/a EPR expansion project in 2010, however, the unit has so far not been operation. The actual output of EPR in China was 16.5 thousand tons in 2011, a drop of 21.5% year-on-year.
   During 2001-2010, China was always one of the countries with the fastest growth of EPR consumption in the world, China’s demand for EPR increased constantly, however, the market share of domestic EPR products reduced continually. In the first half of 2011, the automobile industry developed drastically and its consumption of EPR continued to grow. However, beginning from June, European debt crisis brought a great impact on the international commodity market, China’s automobile industry, which is the largest downstream consumption sector of EPR, began to decline, and the EPR market began to be in oversupply. The consumption growth of EPR slowed down significantly in 2011. It is expected that China’s apparent consumption of EPR will reach around 240 thousand tons in 2012.

Table 2 Supply and Consumption of EPR in China During 2001-2011   thousand tons

Year    Output     Import    Export    Apparent consumption
2001    15    32    1.5    45.5
2002    20    37.7    1.6    56.1
2003    20.4    49.6    0.7    69.3
2004    21.8    71.1    2.3    90.6
2005    19.2    75.0    1.9    92.5
2006    20.1    87.9    2.3    105.7
2007    20.0    114.7    5.0    129.7
2008    18.5    132.4    8.3    142.6
2009    17.7    174.7    2.9    189.5
2010    19.1    217.5    2.5    234.1
2011    16.5    223.0    2.1    237.4
YoY growth  2001-2011 (%)    1    21.4    3.4    18.0
Source: CNCIC


Imbalance consumption structure

The consumption places of EPR in China are mainly concentrated in the sectors including automobile industry, waterproof coiled materials, electric wires and cables, lubricating oil additives, polyolefin modification and plastic runways. Of the consumption structure, the automobile industry occupies the largest consumption proportion. However, with the constant expansion of the application sectors, the consumption structure of EPR has also changed. According to incomplete statistics, in 2011, the consumption proportion of EPR in the automobile industry was around 64%, being basically the same as that in 2010. The consumption proportion of EPR in the electric wires and cable sector increased slightly to 4.5%.  The consumption of EPR in waterproof coiled material sector decreased year-on-year mainly due to the decrease of the domestic real estate development speed caused by the implementation of domestic housing purchase restriction policy. The consumption of EPR in the sectors like polymer modification and oil product additives had little change.

Table 3 Consumption Structure of EPR in China in 2011

Consumption sector    Consumption share (%)
Automobile industry    64.0
Electric wires and cables    4.5
Waterproof coiled materials    7.6
Polymer modification    8.0
Oil product additives    5.1
Plastic runways    7.4
Others    3.4
Source: CNCIC


China’s EPR market also features imbalanced consumption structure. For example, The sectors like electric wires and cables, tire sidewall and tire inner tube should be the large application fields of EPR. However, China has not formed advantage pattern in these fields and lacks of corresponding brand products. The relevant departments should therefore strengthen the research and development in these fields. The major future development trend of EPR is to adapt the development needs for more application fields.
* Automobile industry
Automobile part is the largest consumption sector of EPR.  EPR is mainly used in the manufacture of vehicle water tank hose as well as the heating hose, windshield wipers and sealing strips for doors and windows, etc.  At present, six domestic and foreign companies including PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co Ltd supply EPR used in the manufacture of automobile parts. These EPR products mainly include 4703, 4903, and 8340A of LANXESS in the Netherlands (former DSM plant), 5601, 8600 and 8800 of Exxon Mobil, 4045 of PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co Ltd, and 4045M and 3092E of Mitsui Chemicals.
* Electric wires and cables
The medium and high voltage rubber insulated cables mainly use EPR as an insulation layer. Since 2007, China’s electrical equipment industry has been forced to implement China Compulsory Certificate (CCC) standard and all rubber sheathed cables have been compelled to use EPR as an insulation layer. This is also the important reason for the constant expansion of the demand for EPR in recent years. A number of companies including PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co Ltd provide EPR brands for the production of electric wires and cables. But the domestic market has not had a dominant brand. Of the total, the sales volume of the brands like 4045 of PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co Ltd, most brands of Dow Chemical and foaming series of LANXESS is relatively large. Compared with the foreign companies, 4045 of PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co Ltd has the best processing performance due to its wide molecular weight distribution, however, its tensile strength and electrical resistivity are a bit poor and its price is relatively high.
* Tire
EPR is a good tire sidewall material. It is used with butyl rubber to manufacture automobile inner tube that can extend the service life of tires, and with natural rubber to manufacture tire sidewall that can improve the flexing resistance of tires. A number of EPR companies including PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co Ltd provide corresponding brands to the domestic market. Major products with consumption proportion of over 60% are 2070 and 4045 of PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co Ltd, and 4640 and 4785 of Dow Chemical. 505 in Kumho of Korea is basically consumed by the tire enterprises from Korea. In terms of the price, 4640 and 4785 of Dow Chemical have the lowest price, and have a significant impact on the products of PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co Ltd.
* Building materials
The application of EPR in the architecture sector has a great potential and EPR is mainly used in the sector like waterproof coiled materials, thermal insulation materials, sports venues plastic, bridge bearings and connectors, railway sleepers and modified asphalt. Because the quality requirements on EPR in the above sectors are not high, EPR with relatively low quality is general used in these sectors. The building material market is basically occupied by 3430, 3445, 3720 and 3745 of Dow Chemical, and 3080 of PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co Ltd, as well as low quality EPR of other companies. The market share of Dow Chemical and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co Ltd is around 32% and 8%, respectively. Other products with around 6 000-7 000 tons are the low quality EPR of other companies.
In addition, EPR can also be used for the production of washing machine parts, television parts, food and drug packaging, solar heat collector and rubber sundries, etc. The consumption of EPR in these sectors is around 15 thousand tons.

Imported products dominated the domestic EPR market

In recent years, China’s EPR supply has mainly depended on the imported products, and the ratio of the imported products and the domestic products was 9:1 in 2011. According to customs statistics, China’s import amount of EPR exceeded 100thouand tons and reached 114.7 thousand tons in 2007. China imported 174.7 thousand tons of EPR in 2009, up 31.95% year-on-year. The amount of EPR imported to China was 217.5 thousand tons in 2010. China’s import growth of EPR slowed down in 2011 and the import amount reached 223 thousand tons. While making import, China also exports small amounts of EPR. The amount of EPR exported from China was around 2.1 thousand tons in 2011. Due to the low domestic capacity of EPR, the domestic products are mainly supplied to the domestic market.
   Major import sources of EPR in China include the United States, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands and France, etc. The import of EPR from the United States, Japan, Korea and the Netherlands has been relatively large. The import amount from the four countries accounted for 79.3% of the total in 2010 and mainly came from LANXESS, Dow Chemical, Mitsui Chemicals, Exxon Mobil and Kumho, etc.
   Since 2001, China’s import proportion of ethylene-propylene copolymers in primary forms and ethylene-propylene-non-conjugated diene rubber in primary forms has showed a downward trend, whereas the proportion of ethylene-propylene-non-conjugated diene rubber in plates, sheets or strips has increased apparently. Imported products are used in various fields such as high-grade sealing strips, sponge products, wire and cable, polymer modification, oil product modification and rubber sundries, etc.

China to speed up the construction of EPR units

At present, China’s capacity of EPR is only 20 thousand t/a and is far from meeting the domestic demand. The EPR sector therefore attracts many investors. According to incomplete statistics, there are eight EPR projects being planned to startup by 2015, and their combined capacity of EPR exceeds 500 thousand t/a.
   On the current domestic EPR market, major traders are mainly concentrated in the East China, North China and South China, especially in the East China, whereas the EPR downstream plants are located in North China and East China. Around 40% of the EPR downstream plants are concentrated in Qinghe county of Hebei province and Xianju of Zhejiang province. Market investors should conduct more research and comprehensively consider more factors to determine the location of the EPR units.

Table 4 China’s Newly-built EPR Units by 2015 thousand t/a

Producer    Location    Capacity    Remarks
Liaoning Panjin Zhenao Chemical Co Ltd    Panjin, Liaoning province    100    Scheduled for completion before 2015
Chongqing Changshou Chemical Co Ltd    Kuishan    80    Contract signed in Nov. 2011
Sinopec Beijing Yanhua Petrochemical Co Ltd     Beijing Petrochemical Advanced     80    Planned for construction
        Materials Technology Industrial Base
Sinopec and Mitsui Chemicals     Shanghai Chemical Industry Park    75    Environmental impact assessment  approved in 2011
Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum (Group) Co Ltd    Fuxian county, Shaanxi province    60    Scheduled for  startup in 2015
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Co Ltd     -    50    Scheduled for  startup in 2013
SK Global    Ningbo, Zhejiang province     50    Scheduled for  startup in 2014
PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co Ltd    Jilin city, Jilin province    25    Trial run and no commercial operation
Source: CNCIC

In the developed countries, the peak consumption of EPR has passed, and other new products such as high impact polypropylene replace EPR in some application markets. Globally, the consumption of EPR will remain low growth. However, the market prospect of EPR in China will be bright. Therefore, by virtue of their advanced production technology, product grade range, low production cost and good after sale service, the countries with surplus capacity of EPR will further expand their market shares in China, and will have a great impact on the domestic products.