Analysis of Fixed Asset Investments in the First Half of 2007
Year:2007 ISSUE:31
COLUMN:SPECIAL REPORT
Click:312 DateTime:Nov.06,2007
Analysis of Fixed Asset Investments in the First Half of 2007
By Dong Tao, China National Chemical Information Center
Fixed asset investment in China picked up mildly overall in the first half of 2007. growing 25.9% from January to June - 3.9 percentage points lower than the same period of 2006 and 2.2 percentage points higher than the first quarter of this year. It is expected that this trend will be maintained in the second half of this year. If the growth of fixed asset investment can be kept at 25%-28%, it will still be a relatively mild and stable growth.
1 General status of the
investment in the petroleum
and chemical industry
Like investment in China generally, the growth of investment in the petroleum and chemical industry declined from the high level of the year 2006. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the growth of investment actually completed maintained at more than 30% from June 2004 to June 2006. After June 2006 the growth of investment had a sustained reduction to the lowest of 17.86% during January - March 2007. During January - June 2007 the growth of the total investment picked up once again, being 9.85 percentage points higher than the level during January - March. The growth of actual investment in the period from January - December 2005 to January - March 2007 was slower.
Table 1 Investment and Growth in the Petroleum and
Chemical Industry from January to June 2007
(by industrial sector)
Sector Investment planned Growth Investment actually completed Growth
(RMB million) (%) (RMB million) (%)
Total of the petroleum and chemical industry
1320687.40 21.74 272489.61 27.71
Chemical mineral mining and dressing
8201.53 14.35 1601.96 70.15
Basic chemical raw materials manufacturing
369330.34 27.08 54604.02 40.23
Chemical fertilizers manufacturing
100785.33 17.44 23214.49 11.67
Chemical pesticides manufacturing
18762.36 23.53 5480.58 33.36
Coatings, inks, pigments and similar products manufacturing
36040.40 113.27 8189.97 66.25
Synthetic materials manufacturing
77828.52 -22.06 15075.55 -0.44
Specialty chemicals manufacturing
94656.42 56.93 27337.22 54.87
Rubber products manufacturing
70733.16 29.62 19537.12 30.68
Oil refining and chemical production special equipment manufacturing
5439.38 70.21 1889.48 68.22
Rubber processing special equipment manufacturing
2514.58 242.89 513.99 107.84
Natural crude oil and natural gas exploration
242214.60 -2.35 75939.23 13.19
Oil processing
282839.46 44.53 34175.35 35.04
Oil drilling and exploration special equipment manufacturing
11341.32 69.49 4930.65 130.2
Source: CNCIC
Two peaks appeared in the growth of the number of projects under construction during the period from January - June 2004 to January - June 2007. They happened at January - March 2005 and at January - March 2006 and the growth was 20.12% and 36.68% respectively. Since the first quarter of 2006, however, the growth in the number of projects under construction has declined steadily. It hit a low of 16.41% in the first quarter of 2007. In spite of a pickup for the number of January - June, growth reached only 25.27% - still lower than the peak of January - March 2006.
The trend of projects newly launched was identical to that of projects under construction. Only the growth was bigger. The two peaks that appeared happened at January - March 2005 and at January - March 2006 and the growth was 36.64% and 39.85% respectively. Since the first quarter of 2006, however, the growth in the number of projects newly launched has declined steadily, with a low of - 5.94% in the first quarter of 2007. In spite of a pickup number of January - June, the growth reached only 19.42%, lower than the peak of January - March 2006.
Table 2 Number of Investment Projects and Growth
in the Petroleum and Chemical Industry from
January to June 2007 (by industrial sector)
Sector Number Growth Number Growth Number Growth
of projects (%) of projects (%) of projects (%)
under construction&nb