Abundant Resources And Falling Prices of Rubbers
    --The import amount of  rubbers had a big margin increase in the first
quarter. It is expected that there will still be oversupply in the rubber
market after June and the prices will further drop.
                                By Chen Ke
1. Complete change of new rubber resources reduction
According to the preliminary estimates, the supply amount of new rubber
resources in March had a rise of 42.8% over the previous month and a rise of
18.2% over the same year of last year. The reduction of resources has been
changed into a massive growth of resources. In the months from January to
March, the new rubber resources increased by 1.2% as compared with the same
period of last year.
(1) domestic production
In the domestic rubber resources in March, the output of synthetic rubbers was
more than 50 000 tons, a rise of 51% over the previous month and a drop of
4.6% from the same period of last year. The reduction margin was much lower
than before. In the months from January to March, the output of synthetic
rubbers dropped by 12.4%.
There was still no output of natural rubber in March.
(2) overseas import
In the supply structure of rubber resources, the import amount shifted from
reduction to growth. The output of synthetic rubbers was around 40 000 tons
in March, a rise of 60% over the previous month and a rise of 20% over the
same period of last year. In the months from January to March, the import
amount of synthetic rubbers had a rise of 4.2% over the same period of last
year. The import amount of natural rubber was 50 000 tons in March, a big
margin rise over the previous month and a rise of 55% over the same period of
last year. In the months from January to March, the import amount of natural
rubber had a rise of 17.2% over the same period of last year.It was the first
time in several consecutive months for the import amount of rubbers to have a
drastic increase. The increase of the import amount was the main factor for
the growth of the supply amount of rubber resources in the first quarter.
  In the variety structure of rubber resources, the variety which had a great
growth of new resources was natural rubber, and synthetic rubber resources
did not have much increase. In the months from January to March, the growth
rate of new synthetic rubber resources was 6.2% lower than the same period of
last year.
2. Stable increase of the rubber consumption
  According to estimates, the total consumption of rubbers in March had a big
margin increase over the previous month. The consumption in the months from
January to March was also higher than the same period of last year. In the
consumption structure, the consumption of natural rubber was still maintained
at a low level. In the field of rubber products, the output of tires was more
than 9 million pieces in March, a rise of 45% over the previous month and a
rise of 11% over the same period of last year. In the months from January to
March, the output of tires was 21.49 million pieces, a rise of 10.8% over the
same period of last year. The output of other rubber products such as rubber
shoes and rubber hoses was still not satisfactory.
3. Continuous drop of the market price
The import resources had a big margin increase in China in the first quarter,
but the demand lacked new growth points. There was a more serious oversupply
of the rubber resources and a continuous drop of the market price. According
to the statistics of China Materials Information Center, the average  market
price of natural rubber (spot goods) in March had a drop of 5. 5%  from  the
previous month and a drop of 28.3% from the same period of last  year.   The
average market price of synthetic rubbers (spot goods) in March had  a  drop
of 2.5% from the previous month and a drop of 22.2% from the same period  of
last year.
The average import price of natural rubber in March was 719 U.S. dollars  per
ton, a drop of 1.3% from the previous month. The  average  import  price  of
synthetic rubbers in March was 729 U.S. dollars per ton, a greater drop than
the import price of natural rubber.
4. Prospects of the rubber market
The massive increase of imports in March has made the  oversupply  of  rubber
resources even more serious in the  domestic  market.   The  natural  rubber
resources produced this year have not yet been put on market, but the  price
of spot goods has not shown any sign of recovery. It is expected  that  with
great quantities of new natural rubber resources being put on  market  after
June the price will further drop.